20 Often-Fatal Assumptions
I am often asked by corporations to give some illustrations of assumptions that have caused more trouble than they had any right to in the development of new business plans. Here, for your edification and amusement, are twenty of the ones that have popped up frequently and which have often led otherwise sensible new ventures astray:
Other divisions in the company will be glad to help
All we need is 5% market share!
The firm will surely support the best strategy for our unit
We will have no trouble attracting the right people to work on the project
Competitors will roll over and play dead - or hey, maybe they won't notice your taking market share away from them
Competitors are too...dumb, insignificant, small, unproven, badly capitalized or un-interesting...to worry about
We can use the same key performance indicators in new markets that we use in existing markets (ditto for funding strategies, planning processes, reward systems...)
Customers will buy it because it has these neat features!
Customers won't feel that buying from us is risky
Customers won't mind switching suppliers and will be happy to take on whatever work is involved
We can create a compelling first-mover advantage (corollary: we have to spend a lot to get in first and obtain significant market share so that we can protect our position)
We can develop what we need on time and on budget
It will sell itself!
We will be able to hold our prices and gain market share
There is no real competition for what we offer
Joint venture and alliance partners, and our own suppliers, share our objectives
We won't need to engage in training for suppliers, distributors or customers
The technically superior product will triumph
We can create new markets where there is no competition, quickly
Our projections will be accurate
Have a look at your business plans for a new project and see if any of these little bombshells are lurking there - forewarned is forearmed!